Is Change Theory Enough? Turning Theory Toward Tenacity
When nonprofits and their networks work toward the social good, one common goal tends to surface: sustainable impact — a social impact that makes a difference toward long-term social progress. Even for established nonprofits, long-term outcomes can seem distant and out of reach. Nonprofits must define the desired outcome, map possible interventions, and evaluate progress to work toward sustainable impact. With a theory of change, all these efforts can be worked toward together.
What is a theory of change?
While the term “theory of change” has been floating around for a few decades, its definition is still unclear to many. Stanford professor Paul Brest defined it simply: “The empirical basis underlying any social intervention.” Andrea Anderson of the Aspen Institute breaks this down further in her theories of change guide, stating that a complete theory of change:
- Explains how social intervention may be attained to produce long-term results
- Expresses the assumptions made about the timeline toward change
- Documents progress and adaptations along the way
A theory of change allows social impact to be sought after and measured during every step rather than just by the outcome. It is an evolving and evaluative basis for a nonprofit strategy that can help break down the steps toward sustainable progress.
How do I start and implement a theory of change?
While every theory of change can look different, you can always start with some simple steps:
- Plan backward.
To realize long-term change, bridging the gaps between the ultimate goal and how your organization is situated to the solution is essential. Three questions can help:
What do we want to happen in the long term?
How do we know that things are changing in a way that will result in this long-term goal?
How do we create these intermediate outcomes?
After that, you may have a theory of change similar to the one below, where your interventions and assumptions reach your desired outcome.
- Note your assumptions.
Assumptions are a necessary part of predictive logic. We just don’t know what we don’t know, especially about domino effects and the conditions necessary for change. Theories of change all have assumptions about the enabling conditions for the domino effect to take place. For instance, an education nonprofit may assume that its emotion-management intervention is effective because it assumes that a student has the stable housing necessary for them to develop their socio-emotional health.
Theories of change often have implicit assumptions about the nature of clients and those who will intervene. These assumptions can be fortified by implicit biases that further marginalize communities. One of the most powerful steps you can take to refine your theory of change is to take it to the affected community and offer them the opportunity to critique it. Often, the community will see hidden assumptions and biases that a well-intentioned nonprofit team will miss.
- Maintain your empirical evidence.
Two kinds of empirical evidence can support your assumptions. First is evidence from your efforts. Collecting data throughout your interventions and their outcomes—such as the number of patients attending an HKTP session or changing their attitude toward a procedure—can inform your future steps. Surveys, logs, and journals are great ways to measure progress.
The second is external research. This research could include:
- Published studies
- Evidence portals (like Campbell Systematic Reviews and What Works Clearinghouse)
- News outlets (like CityLab and Scientific American)
- Research centers (like the University of Chicago Urban Labs and the Institute for Policy Research at Northwestern)
When leveraging this data, remember to look for systematic reviews and
meta-analyses. These cohere many studies, making them more comprehensive. If you can’t find studies like these, try finding patterns across the single studies you find. One study by itself usually isn’t enough for your organization’s strategy. Finally, remember to compare the studies’ context to your organization’s context. Differing populations and environments can produce much different results.
- Evaluate your progress.
Progress toward sustainable social impact can be measured contextually. First, look at the indicators of intervention or the variable you collect, such as the number of HKTP attendees. Analyze these across your population, like Hispanics with kidney disease, while keeping your threshold for impact in mind. If your intervention is working to reach the minimum for the desired outcome to be achieved, like an increase in HKPT evaluations over baseline, then your theory of change is effective.
- Act forward.
There is always room for improvement and overcoming barriers. Learn what works for reaching your impact threshold and continue to implement evidence-based best practices. You can consider your main effects and the domino effects to keep improving your impact strategy:
Evolve your theory of change.
A theory of change should be revisited often. Whether your organization faces changes in your DEAI approach, funding, or partner organizations, you can always return to your logic map to examine evidence and environmental shifts. As the social climate evolves, so will your social impact model.
When working toward sustainable social progress, a theory of change can help your organization move from doing good for the community to making a lasting social impact.